Week Ahead – Dec 11th

Week Ahead – Dec 11th

The upcoming week in the United States will be incredibly active, placing emphasis on the Fed’s interest rate decision, inflation data, and retail sales. Investors will also closely track PPI inflation figures and S&P Global PMIs. Internationally, markets will keenly follow monetary policy updates from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, and Brazil’s central bank. Furthermore, Germany will share insights through the ZEW Economic Sentiment index, Japan will provide the Tankan Large Manufacturers index, and flash PMIs will emerge from Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Inflation rates will be reported for Brazil, India, and South Africa, while unemployment rates will be disclosed for the UK and Brazil. Finally, China’s economic calendar will highlight new yuan loans, retail sales, industrial production, the house price index, and the unemployment rate for November.

Anna | anna@tradingeconomics.com 12/8/2023 5:40:30 PM

Next week, all attention will be directed toward the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023. It's expected that US policymakers will maintain interest rates at a 22-year high, prompting investors to closely analyze the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any hints regarding potential rate cuts in 2024. The US is also set to release key inflation data including consumer, producer, and foreign trade prices. Consumer prices are predicted to have inched up by 0.1% in November after staying unchanged in October, while the core rate is expected to have advanced by 0.2%, mirroring the pace of the previous month.  At the same time, retail sales are anticipated to decline for the second consecutive month by 0.1%, while industrial activity is poised to rebound by 0.3%, following a 0.6% contraction in October. Other key data to look at are flash S&P Global PMI surveys and monthly budget statement. Elsewhere in America, attention will also be drawn to Canada's housing starts and Brazil's interest rate decision, inflation rate, and retail trade.

In Europe, the ECB and the BoE are anticipated to maintain current interest rates, given signs of a cooling inflation but investors will be closely watching for indications of impending rate cuts. Also, Switzerland and Norway's central banks will be deciding on the course of monetary policy. On the economic front, flash S&P PMI readings are expected from the Euro Area, Germany and France. It is predicted that the Eurozone's private sector activity will continue to contract in December, albeit at a slower pace; the manufacturing sector is experiencing its least severe contraction in seven months, while the service sector is also shrinking at the slowest rate in five months. Furthermore, industrial production is set to decline for the second consecutive month in October. In Germany, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is forecasted to decrease from an eight-month high. Other data releases include the Euro Area's trade balance, Germany's wholesale prices, and final inflation figures from France and Italy. Turkey's industrial production and unemployment rate, as well as Russia's trade balance, will also be disclosed.

In the United Kingdom, the ONS will issue key reports on employment and growth, including monthly GDP, manufacturing, construction, and foreign trade. Consumer sentiment will be gauged by GfK, while S&P will update on the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors.

In China, economic indicators for November will continue to shed light on the impact of a series of stimulus measures and liquidity injections from Beijing, following up on mixed data reported for the period so far. Investors await industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, housing prices, and new yuan loans. In the meantime, the BoJ’s Tankan Large Manufacturer’s Index is expected to rise to a multi-year high in the fourth quarter. In India, November inflation figures are expected to show a fresh acceleration in retail prices, backing the RBI’s withdrawal of accommodation policy. Elsewhere, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will decide on its policy rate, while South Korea will unveil its unemployment rate.

Finally, In Australia, investors await a batch of key labor data and the NAB business confidence index for November. Additionally, New Zealand will release its third quarter GDP.

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