Week Ahead – Dec 4th

Week Ahead – Dec 4th

In the United States, the focus will be on the highly anticipated US labor report, followed by JOLTS Jobs openings and the ISM Services PMI. Additionally, preliminary readings of Michigan consumer confidence, factory orders, and trade data will offer insights into the economic landscape. Internationally, monetary policy decisions are expected in Australia, India, Canada, and Poland, while inflation rates will be closely watched in China, Turkey, Switzerland, South Korea, the Philippines, Mexico, and Russia. GDP growth rates from South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Australia will also capture global attention. Furthermore, service PMIs for China, Spain, Italy, and Brazil, along with updates on industrial production and factory orders in Germany, alongside Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, will contribute to a comprehensive view of global economic activities. Additionally, attention will be on foreign trade data releases from Germany, Australia, China, and France.

Anna | anna@tradingeconomics.com 12/1/2023 6:12:24 PM

Next week, in the United States, the attention will be dominated by US jobs report, JOLTs job openings, ISM Services PMI survey, and the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment. Projections suggest nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 in November, showing acceleration from the previous month's 150,000 advance. Simultaneously, the jobless rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at a 22-month high of 3.9%, while wage growth is expected to slow to 4%, marking its lowest since June 2021. The ISM survey is expected to reveal a slight acceleration in service sector growth in November. Other key data to monitor encompass the ADP employment change, foreign trade, factory orders, the economic optimism index, and the final readings for both third-quarter productivity and November's S&P Global Services PMI.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to uphold current interest rates, given indications of inflation gradually moderating in the country, alongside signs of a loosening labor market. Key data in focus include Canada's Ivey PMI and foreign trade, Mexico's inflation data, consumer morale, and Brazil's third-quarter GDP, S&P Global Services PMI, and business morale.

In Europe, Germany holds the spotlight with anticipated trade data for October likely indicating declines in both exports and imports. Industrial production is expected to marginally rebound after four months of decline, while factory orders are projected to show no growth. In the Euro Area itself, retail sales is projected to increase in October following four months of no growth and GDP data to confirm slight contraction in Q3. France will unveil its industrial output and trade balance, and Italy will release industrial output, retail sales, and services PMI figures. Spain's agenda includes unemployment data and services PMI, while Switzerland will present CPI and unemployment figures. Turkey is scheduled to publish inflation rates and foreign trade statistics, alongside Russia's consumer prices. In the UK, a lighter economic calendar includes the Halifax House Price Index, BRC retail sales monitor, new car sales, and S&P's PMI updates.

In China, trade figures for November will shed new light on the impact of the recent economic stimulus and liquidity injections on resource demand and economic activity after PMI data was mixed for the period. Asia’s largest economy will also unveil new consumer and producer inflation prints. In Japan, all eyes will be on December’s Tankan index, followed by the current account from October. In the meantime, the RBI is expected to hold its interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, but investors will keep an eye out for the pace of the central bank’s withdrawal of accommodation and further insights on possible bond sales. Elsewhere, South Korea and the Philippines will unveil their November inflation print. In Australia, the RBI is expected to hold its interest rate unchanged after October’s inflation rate surprised on the downside. Shortly after, investors will also welcome Australia’s third quarter GDP.


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