Week Ahead – Jan 1st

Week Ahead – Jan 1st

The first week of 2024 will be very busy in the United States. The spotlight will shine on the labor market report and JOLTS job openings data, followed by the eagerly anticipated release of the FOMC minutes. The focus will then shift to key indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, alongside Challenger job cuts report and factory orders. Also, investors will closely monitor inflation rates in Euro Area, including Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, as well as the Philippines and Turkey. Manufacturing PMI figures from China, Canada, Spain, South Korea, India, and Switzerland will be closely observed, offering a glimpse into industrial activities across diverse markets. Additionally, services PMI data from China, Spain, Italy, and Brazil will further inform assessments of global economic health. Finally, Canada and Germany will release unemployment rates, Japan consumer confidence and Germany retail sales.

Anna | anna@tradingeconomics.com 12/29/2023 5:50:36 PM

The start of 2024 will kick off with the much-anticipated release of the FOMC meeting minutes, offering insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy moves. Also, all eyes will be on the US jobs report, along with the latest updates on JOLTs job openings and the ISM Manufacturing and services PMI survey. Forecasts point to an increase of 158K in non-farm payrolls for December, following a 199K gain the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate is set to rise to 3.8%, while wage growth is projected to slow to 3.9%, marking its weakest pace since June 2021. Simultaneously, job openings are anticipated to rise to 8.8 million in November from the prior month's two-and-a-half-year low. Meanwhile December's manufacturing activity is likely to remain within contractionary levels and services to maintain solid pace of growth. Other important data points to monitor include the ADP employment change, factory orders, and the final S&P Global PMI figures.

In Europe, upcoming inflation report for the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Turkey, and Russia will be closely watched. After a dip to 2.4% in November, Eurozone inflation is expected to rebound to 3% in December, driven primarily by the base effect. Germany is likely to see a decline in retail sales for November, marking the fifth month of no growth in six months, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady in December, at its highest level since May 2021. S&P Global will release the final PMI survey results for the Euro Area, Germany, and France, while Italy and Spain will provide preliminary estimates. In the United Kingdom, the calendar is light, featuring only the Bank of England's monetary indicators, Halifax house prices, and final PMIs.

In Asia, all eyes will be on fresh Chinese PMI results for insights on how Beijing’s stimulus measures from the fourth quarter may have impacted manufacturing at end of a year marked by strong macroeconomic headwinds for the world’s second largest economy. In Japan, investors await December consumer confidence gauges for hints on the BoJ’s policy trajectory. In the meantime, the first estimate for India’s GDP for the 2022-23 fiscal year is expected to show robust growth, and December PMI data is also awaited. Elsewhere, Singapore will divulge its fourth-quarter GDP, while Indonesia and the Philippines will unveil December inflation prints. A muted week for Aussie releases is headlined by the RBA’s Chart Pack and final PMI data.

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