Week Ahead – Nov 20th

Week Ahead – Nov 20th

In the United States, the main focus will be on FOMC meeting minutes followed by durable goods orders, S&P Global services, and manufacturing PMIs, along with existing and new home sales. As the earnings season nears its close, noteworthy reports are expected from Agilent, Zoom, Nvidia, Lowe’s, Analog, Dell, Autodesk, HP, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, and Deere & Company. Internationally, preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs will surface for Australia, France, Germany, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Moreover, interest rate decisions are slated for Turkey, Sweden, South Africa, and Indonesia, while inflation rates will be scrutinized in Canada, South Africa, and Japan. Finally, Germany will publish the Ifo Business Climate.

Anna | anna@tradingeconomics.com 11/17/2023 6:08:55 PM

Next week, in the United States, investors will focus on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday for insights into future monetary policy directions. Fed policymakers have been weighing the risks of taking both excessive and insufficient action while keeping an eye on the deceleration in inflationary pressures and indications of a loosening labor market. On the economic calendar, the US will witness the release of durable goods orders and the flash S&P Global PMI survey. It's expected that new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by 3% in October, partially reversing a 4.7% surge from the previous month. Simultaneously, November's PMIs are likely to reveal moderate growth in service business activity and a marginal contraction in the manufacturing sector. Other noteworthy data includes existing home sales, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the final reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment. US markets will be closed on Thursday and will have early closure on Friday due to the Thanksgiving Day holidays. Still, earnings reports will be released for several big companies including: Agilent, Zoom, Nvidia, Lowe’s, Analog, Dell, Autodesk, HP, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, and Deere & Company. Moving on to Canada, updated data on the inflation rate, retail sales, and new home prices will also be in the spotlight.

In Europe, the focus will be on flash PMI releases. A modest decline in expected in overall business activity in the Euro Area, Germany, and France with both manufacturing and services output expected to decrease, but at a slower rate. Also, Germany's Ifo Business Climate is projected to reach a five-month high in November. Other data includes final reading for Germany's Q3 GDP and producer prices, France's and Turkey's business and consumer sentiment, and Switzerland's trade balance. Sweden and Turkey will also decide on interest rates. In the United Kingdom, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the 2023 Autumn Statement on November 22. The economic calendar includes flash PMIs, GfK Consumer Confidence, CBI industrial trends orders, and public sector net borrowing. Similar to other European countries, the manufacturing and services sectors in the UK are expected to contract at a milder pace.

In China, the PBoC is expected to maintain its loan prime rates unchanged following the hold of its medium-term lending facilities, although markets will keep a close eye on moves from the central bank as recent greater-than-expected cash injections were met with reports of further fund provisions in the near term. In Japan, the spotlight will be on October’s inflation print as a weaker yen likely led to higher consumer prices, potentially laying more pressure on the BoJ to shift away from its ultra-loose policy. Japanese PMI data for November is also awaited. Elsewhere, Thailand will unveil its third-quarter GDP, Bank Indonesia will choose its policy rate, and Malaysia and Singapore will release the CPI for October. In the meantime, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will shed further light on the reasoning behind the latest resumption of the central bank’s tightening cycle. Also, fresh PMI data for November is due.

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