Week Ahead – Jan 8th

Week Ahead – Jan 8th

In the United States, the main focus will be on December inflation rates, followed by foreign trade, and producer prices, and speeches by Fed officials. Also, Switzerland, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and India will unveil the CPI figures. It will be a busy week in China where the calendar includes consumer and producer inflation, foreign trade data, and new yuan loans. Germany will share insights into factory orders, industrial production, and exports and imports. The United Kingdom will showcase November’s GDP growth and industrial production figures. Lastly, investors will keep an eye on unemployment rates for the Euro Area, Italy, Turkey, South Korea, and the Philippines.

Anna | anna@tradingeconomics.com 1/5/2024 6:12:24 PM

In the United States all eyes are on the US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Forecasts suggest consumer prices likely edged up by 0.2% in December, following a 0.1% gain in November. Meanwhile, the core rate is anticipated to have risen by 0.2%, marking a slight ease from the previous month's 0.3% increase. Annually, the headline inflation rate is expected to rebound to 3.2% from November's five-month low of 3.1%, while the core rate likely eased to 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021. Additional economic data to watch includes producer prices, foreign trade metrics, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and the monthly budget statement. Elsewhere in America, Canada will release its trade balance figures, while both Mexico and Brazil are set to unveil their inflation data.

In Europe, retail sales are set to remain stagnant in November following a small increase in the previous month. On a positive note, German data is expected to show a recovery in industrial production and a rise in factory orders in November. France is also likely to see a rebound in industrial activity after three months of decline. Additionally, jobs data will be released for the Euro Area, Italy, and Switzerland. On the monetary policy front, Poland will be deciding on interest rates. Other important data includes the Eurozone's business survey, Germany's balance of trade, France's final inflation figures, Italy's retail sales and industrial activity, Switzerland's inflation rate, retail sales, and industrial production, and Russia’s CPI. In the United Kingdom, the ONS will be updating monthly GDP figures, manufacturing production, construction output, and foreign trade data. After a 0.3% contraction in October, the British economy is anticipated to rebound in November.

In Asia, all eyes will be on a batch of releases from China. The world’s second largest economy will unveil December’s trade figures, price data, and new loan counts. Elsewhere, India will release its December inflation print and November’s industrial production data, while the Bank of Korea will decide on the course of monetary policy. In Australia, economic releases will be headlined by November’s trade balance, expected to show a slightly wider surplus, and the monthly CPI print, which is set to show a considerable slowdown.

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